An IMGW News Report
Could the EU Far Right Hold Brussels Hostage?
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, known for his pro-Russian stance within the EU and NATO, made an unexpected visit to Kyiv this week, his first trip since Russia’s aggressive invasion of Ukraine.
The potential ascent of far-right governments across Europe poses a looming threat to EU unity, wielding the ability to form a potent blocking minority capable of obstructing crucial decisions in Brussels. This article delves into the implications of such a scenario, particularly regarding Investment Migration.
“How the EU deals with and potentially regulates Residency and Citizenship through Investment (CBI) programmes is crucial in Malta, Spain, and Greece, as much as in places like Saint Kitts and Nevis, Grenada, or the UAE.”
The Tipping Point in France
In France, Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National (RN), with its roots in neo-Nazi sympathies and advocacy for strict immigration controls and tax reductions, has surged in recent parliamentary elections following President Emmanuel Macron’s call for snap polls. Analysts caution that if RN secures a majority in the upcoming second round, it could not only fracture domestic politics but also gain veto power over EU legislation. Even without an outright majority, a significant showing by RN could “paralyse” EU decision-making, according to French MEP Pascal Canfin.
Canfin highlights the critical threshold where legislation fails if four member states, representing at least 35% of the EU population, oppose or abstain from voting—an alignment potentially achievable through collaboration among far-right leaders like Giorgia Meloni (Italy), Viktor Orbán (Hungary), and others across Europe.
Growing Influence and Challenges
Belgium, closely monitoring developments as the Flemish nationalist party N-VA advances coalition talks, may soon bolster the ranks of countries tipping the balance in favour of far-right influence. This development raises concerns about its implications for EU policies, particularly in areas such as migration, environmental regulations, and human rights.
Bulgaria’s Political Quagmire
Meanwhile, Bulgaria grapples with persistent political instability, marked by six elections in three years without yielding a stable government. The recent vote, concurrent with EU parliamentary elections, saw GERB emerge with a mandate to form a minority administration amidst allegations of corruption and ties to Russian interests.
Despite Bulgaria’s pivotal role in supporting Ukraine and its aspirations for deeper integration into Western institutions like the Eurozone and Schengen area, internal discord and corruption allegations persist. The involvement of the Movement for Rights and Freedoms, representing ethnic Turks, further complicates efforts to forge viable coalitions.
Former Prime Minister Nikolay Denkov underscores Bulgaria’s vulnerability to Russian influence amid ongoing anti-corruption protests and a fragmented political landscape.
Perspectives
As Europe contends with these seismic political shifts, the rise of far-right parties presents a formidable challenge to the EU’s coherence and decision-making efficacy. The potential consolidation of veto power by these parties threatens not only domestic policies but also the Union’s broader strategic initiatives, including its stance on critical issues like Ukraine.
Investment Migration and Regulatory Challenges
What happens in the EU affects European investment migration operators and has global ramifications. Investment Migration experts closely monitor EU political developments and fear seeing their hard-earned progress in the sector’s recognition milestones potentially at risk. How the EU deals with and potentially regulates Residency and Citizenship through Investment (CBI) programmes is crucial in Malta, Spain, and Greece, as much as in far and remote places like Saint Kitts and Nevis, Grenada, or the UAE. Recent rules classifying IM professionals under EU Anti-Money Laundering laws represent a milestone for the industry. At the same time, if the Commission gets its way, the EU Commission’s case against Malta’s CBI programme will be a significant blow to all stakeholders, especially Citizenship by Migration programmes.
2024 is a tense year for Investment Migration programmes. These decisions and France’s potential veto once the Far Right consolidates its position in the French government can profoundly shape future migration trends in the EU and globally. IMGW News is keeping a close eye on the EU at the moment.
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