In 2023, Forbes magazine recognised Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, as “the world’s most powerful woman.” Despite facing substantial scrutiny and criticism, particularly in Europe, von der Leyen has made a notable impact on the global stage. However, her future in the role remains uncertain as developments continue to unfold./
As Ursula von der Leyen navigates her path towards a potential second term as the President of the European Commission, her stance on safeguarding European values becomes increasingly significant. In her inaugural State of the Union speech in September 2020, von der Leyen firmly declared, “European values are not for sale,” addressing controversial citizenship and residency investment initiatives in member states.
A 2019 European Commission report highlighted risks associated with these programmes, including security threats and the potential for money laundering, tax evasion, and corruption. The report emphasised the risks posed by the Citizenship by Investment (CBI) programmes, which grant EU citizenship – and thereby access to the EU’s freedoms like movement, market access, and voting rights – based solely on national citizenship. Despite von der Leyen’s stance and the inherent risks these schemes pose, Investment Migration continues to flourish, gaining traction in several member states. Nevertheless, many of these countries are implementing stricter due diligence procedures during the onboarding process, which is making a notable difference.
Von der Leyen’s tenure has been marked by her efforts to unify various European leaders around common causes, such as the post-pandemic recovery fund backed by joint borrowing, which garnered support particularly from Southern Europe. Her environmental policies have resonated in Northern Europe, while her support for Ukraine has strengthened her standing in Eastern Europe.
However, challenges remain as von der Leyen seeks reappointment. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban openly opposes her, although he lacks a veto in the decision-making process. Other leaders like Poland’s Donald Tusk and Spain’s Pedro Sanchez have also voiced their concerns, complicating the political landscape she must navigate.
“Despite von der Leyen’s stance and the inherent risks these schemes pose, Investment Migration continues to flourish, gaining traction in several member states. Nevertheless, many of these countries are implementing stricter due diligence procedures during the onboarding process, which is making a notable difference.”
In the European Parliament, where von der Leyen’s reappointment will ultimately be decided, the dynamics are even more complex. The previously broad coalition led by the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP) has seen its margin shrink, necessitating negotiations that might require concessions to more diverse political groups. This scenario puts von der Leyen’s ability to manoeuvre politically to the test, in a parliament eager to exercise its influence.
Moreover, potential candidates like Mario Draghi add unpredictability to the election outcome. His extensive experience and federalist vision may appeal to MEPs seeking a change, although his involvement in the election campaign has been minimal.
As the elections approach, the European Union stands at a critical juncture. Von der Leyen’s leadership has been defined by her commitment to uphold European values amidst internal and external pressures. Her ability to secure a second term will depend not only on her political strategy but also on her success in convincing the EU’s leaders and its citizens of her commitment to transparency and integrity, crucial for maintaining trust in the Union’s governance.