An IMGW News Report:
How did the European Parliament (EP) election turn out?
The far-right saw gains across the EU in last weekend’s elections, while liberals and greens faced setbacks. Despite this, the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP), led by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, remained strong. Von der Leyen assured her supporters, “We will stop them — this is for sure,” signalling determination. However, the rise of far-right influence is expected to disrupt Brussels’ policies. Von der Leyen, eyeing a second term, faces a less environmentally friendly, more fragmented parliament, increasingly unwelcoming towards migrants.
Perhaps in no other country has the EP election caused as much turmoil in the political landscape as in France, sending shockwaves to the core of the EU itself, and possibly challenging its very existence in its current state.
In the wake of a significant victory by Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally (RN) in the European Parliament elections, French President Emmanuel Macron has taken the unprecedented step of dissolving the country’s parliament and calling for legislative elections later this month. Here’s what you need to know about what’s next – and why it matters:
What Happened in France?
Voters in France dealt a massive blow to Macron in elections on Sunday for the European Parliament. Preliminary results showed that Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally (RN) secured more than 30 percent of the vote compared with 14.5% for the French president’s Renaissance (RE) party. The European elections, while primarily for selecting representatives for the European Parliament, also reflect sentiments towards national political parties akin to a domestic vote.
The French leader, known for his staunch support of the European Union (EU), faces shifting political sentiments within France, particularly concerning issues such as immigration, crime, and the cost of living. Macron expressed concern over the rise of nationalist and demagogic forces, viewing them as a danger to both France’s position in Europe and the world.
“For me, who has always considered that a united, strong, and independent Europe is good for France, it’s a situation that I cannot come to terms with,” Macron said on Sunday.
“The rise of nationalists and demagogues is a danger to our nation. And also for France’s position in Europe and in the world,” he added.
Analysts’ Perspectives
Some political analysts suggest that Macron’s decision to call for a snap election is a pivotal moment for French citizens, presenting them with a choice between strengthening Europe or supporting a party that seeks to undermine it. Macron may be strategically gambling on allowing Le Pen’s party a taste of governance before the 2027 presidential election, hoping that prolonged exposure might diminish its allure. Olaf Bohnke, Berlin director of the Alliance of Democracies Foundation, proposes that Macron’s strategy is geared towards gradually eroding the appeal of Le Pen’s party over time.
What is a Cohabitation?
If Macron’s party loses the election, the new prime minister, potentially from the opposition, would lead domestic policy, leading to a situation known as cohabitation. Macron’s influence over domestic affairs would diminish significantly, although he would retain control over defense and foreign policy.
What Could a Cohabitation with Le Pen’s Party Look Like?
Le Pen’s protege, Jordan Bardella, could potentially become prime minister, with policies focusing on social housing access for French nationals, asylum processing reforms, and scrapping inheritance tax for middle-class families. A cohabitation between a pro-European president and a Eurosceptic nationalist party would be uncharted territory for France.
Le Pen’s Positions on Migration, Multiculturalism, and the EU
Marine Le Pen, along with the National Rally (formerly National Front), advocates for the abolition of dual citizenship and automatic acquisition of French nationality (“Interview: Marine Le Pen”. Vie Politique, 2010). Le Pen has argued that dual citizenship undermines republican cohesion and impedes the assimilation of immigrants into French society.
“I am opposed to a multicultural France. I believe that those with a different culture who come to France should embrace French culture. Like the old saying, ‘When in Rome, do as the Romans do.’ I think that in France we should do as the French people do,” she said during an interview on CNN in 2016, celebrating Donald Trump’s electoral victory in the US presidential elections.
She has proposed a moratorium on legal immigration, repeal of laws allowing illegal immigrants to become legal residents, and reduction of benefits for immigrants to deter further immigration. Additionally, she has called for France’s withdrawal from the Schengen Area and reinstatement of border controls following events like the Arab Spring and the European migrant crisis.
Furthermore, Le Pen has advocated for a referendum on France’s membership in the EU, drawing parallels to the UK’s Brexit referendum (“Brexit ‘most important moment since Berlin Wall’: Le Pen”. BBC News. Retrieved 28th June 2016).
Impact on EU Policies
With Le Pen’s party being anti-migration and with other EU parties echoing its position in Italy, Hungary, and Germany, there is always the risk that the EU’s current strict stance on investment migration, for instance, could become even tighter. Yet only time will tell how these developments will influence EU policies in the future.
Overview: 2024 European Parliament Elections
The 2024 European Parliament election, held from 6th to 9th June, marked the tenth parliamentary election since the first direct elections in 1979 and the first post-Brexit election. Coinciding with various other elections in EU member states, this event saw the European People’s Party (EPP) emerge as the dominant force, shaping EU policy towards the right. Significant gains by far-right parties posed challenges to mainstream politics.
While Ursula von der Leyen’s prospects for another term as European Commission President seemed promising, uncertainties lingered. Green parties experienced setbacks, and Renew Europe suffered losses, impacting the Parliament’s power balance. The election results also served as de facto referendums on national governments across the EU, with implications for leaders such as Macron in France, a country seen as a leading bastion of the EU project.
Of interest
Below is an infographic illustrating the outcomes of the June 2024 European Parliament Elections:
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