An IMGW News Report
Seven months into Trump’s second term, sweeping immigration raids and stricter enforcement are beginning to reveal sharp economic consequences across the United States.
In California, workforce participation tumbled—total employment shrank by 3.1%, while noncitizen participation fell 7.2% between May and June, marking the steepest drop since the Great Recession (American Immigration Council). Concurrently, a Stanford study found school attendance dropped 22–30% in immigrant-heavy regions following enforcement actions (San Francisco Chronicle).
“Industry experts warn the economic toll of mass deportation policies is becoming alarmingly clear as more data emerge”
Nationally, more than 1.2 million immigrants exited the labour force from January through July 2025, straining key industries—agriculture, construction, and health care—that heavily rely on immigrant labour (45%, 30%, and 43% respectively) AP News. These absences are fueling inflation: Moody’s economist Mark Zandi forecasts U.S. inflation could climb to 4% by early 2026 as labour shortages tighten markets, New York Post.
The meatpacking and agricultural sectors are facing acute labour deficits. In Wisconsin, termination of migrant work programs triggered staff shortages at plants like Tyson, increasing concerns over food supply and grocery prices (Financial Times). Around 40% of U.S.-hired farmworkers—and up to 75% in California—are undocumented. Raids have driven many from the fields, resulting in labour shortfalls and crop losses that disrupt supply chains (The Week).
In California’s Oxnard region, one study estimates a 20–40% decline in the agricultural workforce due to intensified raids, causing $3–7 billion in crop losses and a 5–12% spike in produce prices (arXiv).
Widespread immigration enforcement is driving labour shortages, production disruptions, rising prices, and missed opportunities. Industry experts warn the economic toll of mass deportation policies is becoming alarmingly clear as more data emerge.
