Opinion Feature: An article by Dr Christian H. Kaelin, TEP, FIMC, Chairman of Henley & Partners
Having an EU passport has long been considered a privilege, something to aspire to if you were not lucky enough to be born a citizen. It grants access to myriad opportunities. From fairly unrestricted travel as EU passports regularly rank very high on the Henley Passport Index, to the right to live and do business in any EU member state and several others, including Switzerland, to many other privileges. However, as geopolitical dynamics shift and new challenges emerge, the once-coveted EU passport may come with unforeseen downsides, notably the specter of conscription — and war.
Disruption in Europe
The concept of conscription, or mandatory military service, is not new to Europe. Historically, most European countries have maintained some form of conscription system as a means of national defence. The French revolution brought about the levée en masse, a policy whereby all able-bodied male citizens aged 18 to 25 were called to arms to defend France. While large militias had existed in Europe for centuries, the levée en masse was groundbreaking in terms of mobilising large numbers of ordinary citizens for military service. Yet, in recent decades especially, the trend has been towards professionalized militaries. However, with rising tensions and security concerns, several EU member states have begun re-evaluating their defense strategies, reigniting discussions around conscription. When even the German defence minister is warning that Europe needs to be ready for war before 2030, one may ask where we are heading.
The Baltic states, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia, as well as Finland, have maintained or reinstated compulsory military service in response to perceived threats from Russia. In Lithuania, for example, conscription was reintroduced in 2015 amid growing concerns over Russian aggression in the region. While these measures are aimed at bolstering national defence, the leaders of Estonia and Latvia are urging other European countries to ramp up efforts to prepare for armed conflict, including considering conscription and imposing special defence taxes. This raises questions about the implications for EU citizens, particularly those holding passports of member states where conscription is not currently an issue.
The toll of conscription
For EU citizens accustomed to the freedoms afforded by their passports, the prospect of conscription presents a stark reality check. Imagine your child is a young professional with aspirations of studying or working abroad, only to be called up for military service. The once-seamless mobility granted by their passport suddenly becomes constrained by the obligation to serve in the armed forces. Some countries, such as Finland, are quite strict in that even citizens who live abroad must return to do military service.
The same applies in South Korea and Singapore. But could conscription, and a strict application thereof based on citizenship, return to Europe? With the current warmongering by most European leaders, and the recent expansion of NATO, which only increases the prospect of armed conflict with Russia, unfortunately it is a real possibility. Suddenly, EU citizenship may not be that attractive anymore, and instead holding a Caribbean passport could make much more sense for some.
Conscription can have profound personal and socio-economic implications. For individuals pursuing higher education or building careers, mandatory military service can disrupt their plans and delay their progress. This is particularly true in sectors that require continuous skill development or specialized training, where a hiatus for military service could prove detrimental. And parents simply do not want to entertain even the most remote possibility that they or their children may be drafted into an army where they may eventually be sent to serve in frontline operations.
Conscription would also pose challenges for businesses operating in Europe. Employers may find themselves grappling with workforce shortages as employees are called up for military duty. Small and medium-sized enterprises may struggle to cope with the sudden loss of manpower, potentially impacting productivity and profitability.
Erosion of EU values and unity
Beyond the individual and economic ramifications, the resurgence of conscription in Europe carries broader implications for the EU project itself. The bloc has long been heralded as a beacon of peace and cooperation, built on the principles of democracy, human rights, and the rule of law. However, the possible reintroduction of conscription in more member states raises questions about the compatibility of compulsory military service with these fundamental values. Looking at the current rhetoric of many political leaders in the EU, one may wonder where this will lead to.
Compulsory military service also threatens to exacerbate divisions within the EU. While some member states may view such service as essential for national security, others may see it as a relic of a bygone era, incompatible with the principles of a modern, integrated Europe. Such divergent perspectives could strain relations within the bloc further, undermining cohesion and solidarity at a time when unity is needed most.
Balancing benefits and risks
Considering these challenges, EU citizens may find themselves reconsidering the value of their passports in the future and are increasingly looking for options outside the bloc to hedge for all eventualities. While the benefits of EU citizenship remain substantial, from visa-free travel, to access, to rights of establishment, the specter of conscription adds a new layer of complexity to the equation. For individuals weighing the pros and cons of obtaining or retaining EU citizenship, the risk of being subjected to compulsory military service may tip the scales in favor of alternative citizenship options.
Having experienced the widespread mismanagement of measures and incompetence of authorities during the Covid-19 pandemic, especially in Europe, with unprecedented curtailing of basic citizens and human rights without, as we now know, sufficient scientific evidence, many individuals have opted for acquiring alternative residence and citizenship options for future eventualities, and the prospect of the re-introduction of conscription will simply add to this trend. Europe, it seems, is going slowly but steadily in the wrong direction in terms of individual rights and freedoms, rule of law, and the peaceful coexistence of peoples which was at the heart of the foundation of the EU institutions following the Second World War.
The European project brought unprecedented peace to European nations, arguably its biggest achievement. It would appear that not much of this is left if you listen to the current rhetoric from EU parliamentarians to German and other European politicians.
That said, the resurgence of conscription in Europe should not be seen as a foregone conclusion. It is incumbent upon EU member states to carefully weigh the necessity of mandatory military service against its potential costs and consequences. Alternative approaches to national defence, such as increased investment in professional military forces or enhanced cooperation through organizations such as NATO, should be explored as viable alternatives to conscription. Militia armies may not be the only answer to the aim of increasing military capability in Europe.
Furthermore, EU institutions must play a proactive role in safeguarding the rights and freedoms of all citizens, including those facing the prospect of conscription. Robust mechanisms for protecting individual liberties and ensuring equal treatment under the law are essential to preserving the integrity of the European project.
While an EU passport has long been synonymous with freedom and opportunity, the resurgence of conscription in Europe and the warmongering around the Ukraine crisis serves as a sobering reminder of the complexities and uncertainties inherent in citizenship. As geopolitical dynamics evolve and new challenges emerge, one must carefully consider the implications of individual passport and residence status, weighing the benefits against the potential risks. More than ever, optionality is important to safeguard individual rights and freedoms.
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