An IMGlobalWealth.news Report
Latest demographic figures show births shifting towards South Asia and Africa, while ageing advanced economies rely increasingly on migration to sustain labour supply and economic growth.
The world’s demographic centre of gravity continues to move away from Europe, North America and other advanced Western economies.
As of August 2026, the latest globally comparable series remains the United Nations’ World Population Prospects 2024, which provides medium-variant estimates for 2025. It puts worldwide births at approximately 132.4 million last year. (population.un.org)
“An IMF study published in July 2025 found that migrant inflows had helped advanced economies offset shrinking domestic workforces and increase labour supply”
An IMGW.news calculation covering the EU’s 27 members, Britain, the United States, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Norway, Switzerland and Iceland produces a combined total of 8.9 million births, equivalent to just 6.7% of the global figure.
India alone recorded an estimated 23.1 million births, more than two-and-a-half times the total for that broad Western grouping. Nigeria registered 7.6 million and Pakistan 6.9 million, each exceeding the 6.2 million births recorded across geographical Europe. Ethiopia, with around 4.2 million, also surpassed the EU’s estimated total of 3.7 million. (Our World in Data)
The latest official European figures sharpen the contrast. Data released by Eurostat on 10 July 2026 show that the EU recorded 3.46 million births and 4.81 million deaths during 2025, producing a natural population decline of 1.35 million.
The bloc’s population nevertheless increased by 706,000 to 452 million on 1 January 2026 because net migration added approximately 2.05 million people. Deaths have exceeded births across the EU every year since 2012, making migration the decisive source of its recent population growth. (European Commission)
The implications extend beyond population totals. The OECD warned in July 2025 that the working-age population across its members is projected to fall by 8% by 2060, with declines exceeding 30% in more than one-quarter of member countries.
Over the same period, the number of people aged 65 and over for every 100 working-age residents is expected to rise from 31 in 2023 to 52. Without stronger productivity, longer working lives and greater workforce participation, the OECD estimates that annual per-capita economic growth could slow by around 40%. (OECD)
Migration is already mitigating part of that pressure. An IMF study published in July 2025 found that migrant inflows had helped advanced economies offset shrinking domestic workforces and increase labour supply. It also noted that migrants are generally younger than the populations of their destination countries and frequently move towards economies facing age-related skills shortages. (IMF)
The latest OECD migration data, published in November 2025, recorded 934,000 new permanent labour migrants during 2024. Although down from the post-pandemic peak, the figure remained 32% above 2019 and 93% above 2015. A further 2.3 million foreign workers received temporary work permits, 26% more than in 2019. (OECD)
Labour migration and investment migration serve different purposes. Nurses, carers, builders and agricultural workers address immediate vacancies, while entrepreneur, talent and investor routes seek to attract skills, enterprise and financial capital. Both, however, form part of a widening competition among ageing economies for internationally mobile people.
Low fertility does not make migration the only response. Automation, higher productivity, later retirement and stronger participation among women and older workers will also matter. Yet children born in 2025 will not enter the workforce until the 2040s. Migration remains one of the few instruments capable of expanding labour supply in the present.
