South Africa and Nigeria have stepped back from another diplomatic quarrel over migration. Following talks in Abuja, Pretoria promised to prosecute those responsible for attacks on foreign nationals, while Nigeria began compiling compensation claims and sought stronger police protection and an early-warning system. The immediate crisis has already prompted the voluntary repatriation of 1,490 Nigerians.
The dispute revives an awkward history. Nigeria was an important supporter of the anti-apartheid struggle, but post-1994 solidarity gradually gave way to commercial rivalry and mutual suspicion. South Africa’s xenophobic violence in 2008 killed more than 60 people; another flare-up in 2019 triggered reprisals against South African businesses in Nigeria, forcing MTN and Shoprite outlets to close temporarily.
“Nigeria hosted about 1.3m migrants and had around 1.7m emigrants in 2020. Its diaspora is also an economic asset: remittances reached about US$19.5bn in 2023”
The economic comparison is revealing. IMF projections for 2026 put South Africa’s nominal output at roughly US$480bn, compared with Nigeria’s US$377bn. Yet Nigeria, with about 242m people, is almost four times as populous. South Africa’s output per person is therefore nearly five times higher, at about US$7,500 against US$1,556. Nigeria is growing faster, at around 4.1% this year, while South Africa is expanding by barely 1%.
Migration reflects those differences. South Africa remains one of the continent’s principal economic magnets. Its 2022 census counted 2.4m foreign-born residents, just under 4% of the population, while roughly 915,000 South Africans were living abroad in 2020. Nigeria, by contrast, hosted about 1.3m migrants and had around 1.7m emigrants in 2020. Its diaspora is also an economic asset: remittances reached about US$19.5bn in 2023.
This makes South Africa’s political arithmetic especially troubling. Foreigners form a relatively modest share of its population, yet are routinely blamed for unemployment, crime and failing public services. With unemployment above 32%, migrants are convenient scapegoats for failures that are mostly domestic.
The latest diplomatic reset is therefore necessary but insufficient. The real test is whether South Africa can replace vigilantism with credible migration enforcement, and whether both governments can separate individual criminality from nationality. AfCFTA cannot thrive if goods and capital are welcomed across borders while African people are treated as intruders.
