An IMGW News Report
Dubai’s property market, long a byword for frenetic growth, may be heading for a pause. Moody’s Ratings predicts that home prices in the United Arab Emirates will ease from 2026 as a wave of new supply hits the market. More than 150,000 apartments and villas are scheduled for delivery between 2025 and 2027 – an increase of about a fifth in Dubai’s housing stock.
The agency expects this surge to trigger a “modest price correction” in two years’ time. For would-be buyers, that spells more bargaining power; for renters, a chance to catch their breath after years of relentless increases.
Yet the anticipated dip is no sign of waning demand. Dubai’s population rose by 6% in 2024 to 3.9m, buoyed by strong economic growth and liberalised visa policies. Smaller households – averaging 3.9 people, down from 4.4 in 2019 – are also driving the need for more homes. The influx of wealthy newcomers adds to the pressure: the emirate now hosts more than 80,000 millionaires, double the tally of a decade ago. In the first quarter of 2025 alone, over 590 homes priced above Dh20m changed hands.
The type of property matters. Villas, whose prices jumped by 20% in 2024, remain in vogue among families and the rich. Apartments, which rose 18% over the same period, may face sharper corrections once fresh supply outstrips demand, particularly in the mid-market.
This time, though, the foundations look sturdier. Developers such as Emaar are flush with cash: combined profits at the six largest builders hit Dh46bn last year, up nearly fourfold in five years, while average leverage has tumbled. That financial strength means projects are less likely to stall should prices soften.
Regulation has also improved. Escrow rules ensure off-plan buyers’ money is released only when construction milestones are met, while new laws in Sharjah are bringing standards closer to those of Dubai and Abu Dhabi.
Moody’s sums up the outlook as “stable”, reflecting robust demand and macroeconomic resilience. Residents, whether buyers, tenants or investors, may finally find a market that offers choice without the chaos.
