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As European governments tighten their migration regimes, Britain’s Labour administration is looking north for inspiration. Denmark, once an outlier for its hawkish asylum policies under a centre-left government, has become a model for politicians seeking to demonstrate firmness without leaning openly to the right. Yet the Danish experience suggests that deterrence carries political and social trade-offs.
“Asylum applications fell from roughly 21,000 in 2015 to just over 2,000 last year, placing Denmark among the EU’s lowest recipients, according to Eurostat”
Copenhagen’s approach hardened after the 2015 refugee influx, when Social Democrat and centrist governments imposed measures designed to make Denmark a less attractive destination. Some were symbolic, such as the widely criticised proposal to seize jewellery from asylum seekers. Others cut deeper: prolonged waits for permanent residency, tougher reviews and the creation of “return centres” like Avnstrup, where rejected asylum seekers and applicants in limbo are housed in sparse dormitories under strict reporting rules.
These policies sharply curtailed flows. Asylum applications fell from roughly 21,000 in 2015 to just over 2,000 last year, placing Denmark among the EU’s lowest recipients, according to Eurostat. Supporters argue that reducing pressure strengthens integration for those who remain and preserves public backing for a generous welfare state.
Copyright: Paul Morigi
For Keir Starmer’s government, which last week unveiled reforms inspired by Denmark’s model, this appears a compelling blueprint. But Denmark’s political mood has shifted. In municipal elections last week, the ruling Social Democrats lost control of Copenhagen for the first time in more than a century as progressive voters rebelled. Some viewed the government’s migration rhetoric as drifting into fear-mongering. Others objected to policies such as the “ghetto law”, which the EU has warned amounts to ethnic discrimination.
Human-rights advocates warn of a race to the bottom, arguing that harsh conditions will not deter those fleeing persecution but will trap them in precarious limbo. Danish migration experts caution that strict asylum rules risk alienating even legal migrants and their children, reinforcing perceptions that the country has become unwelcoming.
Lars Løkke Rasmussen, the former prime minister who helped design much of the system, now speaks of balance. Denmark must remain open to migrants who support its labour market and to refugees with genuine claims, even as it curbs irregular arrivals. That balance, open and closed at once, is precisely what London hopes to emulate. Whether it can avoid Denmark’s political blowback is far from clear.
