An IMGW News Report on The State of Migration in the EU, 2025
The European Union Agency for Asylum’s Asylum Report 2025 arrives in the midst of a pause, not a resolution. It records 1.014 million asylum applications lodged in EU+ countries in 2024, down 11% from 2023, and the second consecutive year with figures topping the million mark. Germany (237,000), Spain (166,000), Italy (159,000), France (159,000), and Greece (74,000) shouldered almost 80% of these, while Cyprus and Greece once again saw the highest number of applications per capita – about one claim for every 140 residents.
“Political appetite for a more restrictive asylum policy is growing, driven by domestic pressure, right-wing populism, and fiscal fatigue.”
Yet underlying pressures persist. The report shows that post-pandemic figures have rebounded, approaching the levels seen during the 2015–16 crisis. Syrians (151,000 claims) remained the largest nationality group, though their numbers fell by 17 percent year-on-year. The unexpected collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in December 2024 prompted many EU+ countries to freeze decisions on Syrian applications, pending a reassessment of protection needs.
Other trends have shifted. Venezuelans lodged a record 74,000 applications – up 9 percent – with most choosing Spain. Meanwhile, claims from Malians and Senegalese more than doubled, driven by maritime arrivals to the Canary Islands. Applicants from countries such as Bangladesh (43,000), Peru (27,000), and Egypt (notably among unaccompanied minors) also reached historic highs.
📊 Key insights from the EUAA Asylum Report 2025
Total Asylum Applications in 2024
- 1.014 million applications in EU+ countries
- 📉 Down 11 percent compared to 2023
- Top 5 recipient countries:
- 🇩🇪 Germany: 237,000
- 🇪🇸 Spain: 166,000
- 🇮🇹 Italy: 159,000
- 🇫🇷 France: 159,000
- 🇬🇷 Greece: 74,000
- 🧮 Cyprus & Greece: Highest per capita — ~1 per 140 residents
Top Nationalities of Applicants
| Nationality | Applications | % Change (YoY) |
|---|---|---|
| 🇸🇾 Syrians | 151,000 | -17% |
| 🇦🇫 Afghans | 87,000 | -24% |
| 🇻🇪 Venezuelans | 74,000 | +9% (record) |
| 🇹🇷 Turks | 56,000 | -45% |
| 🇨🇴 Colombians | 52,000 | -18% |
Recognition Rates
- 🔹 Overall: 42 percent
- ✅ Highest rates:
- Syrians, Palestinians: ~90 percent
- Burkinabe, Malians, Eritreans, Ukrainians: 80 percent+
- ❌ Lowest rates:
- Bangladesh, Morocco, Tunisia: ≤20 percent
Processing & Backlogs
- 🗂 795,000 first-instance decisions (most since 2017)
- ⏳ 981,000 cases pending by year-end
“Unless the EU finds a lasting balance between control and compassion, the next migration surge could test not only its borders but its unity”
Reception Pressures
- 4.4 million Ukrainians under temporary protection
- 🇩🇪 Germany: 1.2M
- 🇵🇱 Poland: ~1M
- 🇨🇿 Czechia: highest per capita
- Key issues:
- 🛏️ Overcrowding
- ⚠️ Homelessness risks
- 👩⚕️ Insufficient health/mental health follow-up
Resettlement & Dublin Transfers
- ✳️ 14,000 resettled refugees (2nd lowest since 2016)
- 60% handled by 🇩🇪 Germany & 🇫🇷 France
- 🔄 17,000 Dublin transfers (up 14 percent)
- Most transferred: Afghans, Syrians, Algerians, Turks
🧭 Looking Ahead
- 📜 Pact on Migration and Asylum adopted in April 2024
- Implementation due: mid-2026
- Dual system challenge: old vs new rules
- Requires: 🧑💼 Staff, 💰 Funding, 📚 Legal clarity
Authorities across Europe ramped up case processing in 2024, issuing 795,000 first-instance decisions – the highest number since 2017. But the backlog continued to grow, reaching 981,000 pending cases by year-end. The overall recognition rate remained stable at 42 percent, although this headline figure masks extreme variation. Syrians and Palestinians were recognised in over 90 percent of cases, while nationals of Bangladesh, Morocco, and Tunisia saw success rates below 20 percent.
The long-awaited Pact on Migration and Asylum, adopted in April 2024 and due to take effect in mid-2026, offers hope of harmonised procedures and accelerated processing – particularly for applicants from countries with low recognition rates. But the transition is proving resource-intensive. Member States must now juggle two systems: the old rules for applications lodged before 2026, and the new regime for everything after.
“The decline in numbers offers a pause – but the root causes remain. Europe must choose between retreating into restriction or building a migration policy rooted in principle and pragmatism.”
Reception systems remained under pressure, not least because of the 4.4 million Ukrainians under temporary protection across the bloc. Germany and Poland hosted nearly half this number, while Czechia recorded the highest per capita figure. Governments have begun encouraging Ukrainians to exit state-funded accommodation and enter private housing markets – often an uphill task amid widespread housing shortages.
Resettlement, too, suffered. Just 14,000 refugees were transferred from third countries to EU+ states in 2024, the second-lowest tally since 2016. Germany and France accounted for 60 percent of this total. Operational difficulties, conflicts in transit regions, and dwindling political will all played a role.
The Dublin system, intended to prevent multiple asylum applications in different countries, saw a modest recovery. Roughly 17,000 transfers were implemented in 2024 – a 14 percent increase on the previous year, but still well below pre-pandemic levels. Transfers mostly involved Afghans, Syrians, Algerians and Turks.
Behind the numbers lies a sharper truth. Political appetite for a more restrictive asylum policy is growing, driven by domestic pressure, right-wing populism, and fiscal fatigue. Some countries have introduced tighter material conditions and reception rules, citing limited capacity and public sentiment. In parallel, courts across Europe have had to intervene repeatedly to uphold reception standards and procedural rights.
Europe’s migration architecture is evolving, but slowly – and under strain. The Pact may yet deliver a more cohesive system, but only if Member States invest the political and operational capital required. Absent that, the EU risks lurching from one patchwork fix to another, while public trust and legal coherence continue to fray.
For now, the decline in applications offers breathing room. But the drivers of displacement—conflict, repression, inequality, climate change – show no sign of abating. Unless the EU finds a lasting balance between control and compassion, the next migration surge could test not only its borders but its unity.
