As 2025 draws to a close, global mobility shows no sign of slowing despite a backdrop of geopolitical tension, regulatory recalibration, and growing calls for transparency. Investors and advisors now face a pivotal phase where the desire for stability and diversification must coexist with tightening compliance and shifting political attitudes.
At IMGlobalWealth.com, we look ahead to the coming cycle with insight from leading voices in the field.
In this special contribution, Dr Rui Assis Passos, a seasoned Portuguese lawyer and founder of ERG Legal in Lisbon, offers his perspective on the forces shaping the next two years of wealth and mobility. A key contributor to Portugal’s recent Golden Visa reform, Dr Passos has over two decades of experience in immigration, taxation, and estate planning, and has advised hundreds of high-net-worth individuals on legal pathways across Europe and the Gulf.
My Ideas of a Market Outlook 2026–2027 – 𝑫𝒓 𝑹𝒖𝒊 𝑨𝒔𝒔𝒊𝒔 𝑷𝒂𝒔𝒔𝒐𝒔
Demand & Flows
Record mobility continues. Global HNWI migration hit an estimated ~142k movers in 2025 and is forecast to reach ~165k in 2026, setting a new baseline for 2027 barring major shocks. Expect wealth flight to remain a structural feature of the decade.
Origin Markets
US: Demand remains strong as a political hedge; a mix of EU residencies (Portugal/Greece) plus speed options (Caribbean/UAE).
China: Steady interest but moderated by outbound controls; Europe is favoured for education and prestige; Singapore is a rising complement.
Middle East/Gulf: Dual-track strategy — UAE for immediate certainty, EU for long-term diversification.
UK: Policy changes are accelerating outflows in 2025; expect spillover into UAE, Italy, and Switzerland through 2026–27.
Europe: Policy Trajectory
Spain: Programme terminated on 3 April 2025; expect residual litigation and transition noise through 2026; capital diverts to Portugal, Greece, Italy, and the UAE.
Greece: Higher thresholds (mostly €400k–€800k) bed in; Athens and prime zones remain premium; peripheral and rehabilitation plays emerge under the 2024–25 rules.
Portugal: The fund-only architecture consolidates — no real estate route, continued preference for CMVM-regulated VC/PE and R&D/culture options; messaging stabilises after the 2023 reforms. Net result: fewer, but more sophisticated, applications.
Brussels oversight: Continued Commission pressure on ‘Golden Passport’ optics keeps citizenship-by-investment under scrutiny; residency-by-investment persists where aligned with capital markets development and housing neutrality (trend inferred from EC stance and 2024–25 actions across member states).
Destinations Outside the EU
UAE/Dubai: Remains the primary global wealth magnet (policy clarity, tax, time zone hub). Expect sustained record inflows in 2026–27 as Europe tightens and the UK outflow continues.
Singapore: Keeps gaining share from Asia-origin families seeking rule of law and financial depth; watch tighter admission standards but continued strong demand.
Caribbean: Repositions on speed and certainty; volumes remain sensitive to EU/UK visa-policy dialogues, but demand persists for immediate mobility hedges.
Asset-Class Implications
Shift from bricks to balance sheets. With Spain closed, Greece pricier, and Portugal pivoting away from property, capital rotates from real estate toward regulated funds (VC/PE/credit), innovation, and cultural endowments. Expect more institutional-grade fund vehicles tailored to residence and citizenship by investment (RCBI) in 2026–27.
Real estate: Athens and Lisbon prime hold value; developers lean into rehabilitation and special zones; affordability politics limit further programme-driven expansion.
Operational Realities (What Families Will Feel)
Longer due diligence and KYC cycles as banks and regulators tighten.
Higher minimums (Greece), stricter proofs of source of funds, and more programme volatility headlines — requiring parallel tracks (EU + UAE/Singapore) to avoid timing risk.
The portfolio approach to mobility becomes standard: one quick passport, one EU residency, one tax-efficient base.
Strategy for Advisors & Families
Design for redundancy: Pair EU residency (Portugal/Greece) with operating-base hubs (UAE/Singapore) to balance lifestyle, tax, and business continuity.
Front-load compliance: Fund selection under CMVM-style regimes; independent custodian, audited track record, and sector diversification to future-proof applications.
Timeline truth: Assume 12–24 months door-to-door for EU residencies (application to card-in-hand), depending on jurisdictional backlogs; maintain interim mobility via visa-free or secondary options (service-planning guidance; exact timelines vary by case and policy).
Narrative matters: For Europe, emphasise job creation, innovation, and housing-neutral capital — that’s where political permission space is heading.
Bottom Line
By late 2027, expect a market defined by higher programme quality, fewer ‘tourists’, and more sophisticated capital. Europe will not exit the stage — it will professionalise. Meanwhile, the UAE and Singapore will remain the ballast of global Plan-B architecture, with the Caribbean supplying speed. Demand is durable; routes are evolving. The ‘Raiders of the Plan B’ aren’t stopping – they’re getting smarter.
